January 2026 Box Office Battle: Can New Thrillers Dethrone Avatar?

A New Year’s Cinematic Showdown

The holiday movie season dust is settling, but the battle for box office supremacy is just heating up. As we enter January 2026, the cinematic landscape is dominated by one colossal force: James Cameron’s ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash.’ After a powerful December 2025 run, the question on everyone’s mind is whether any new contender has what it takes to challenge its reign. A slate of high-stakes thrillers and horror sequels is stepping into the ring, promising a month of fierce competition and potential surprises.

The Unshakable Champion: Avatar’s Dominance Continues

It’s no surprise that ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ is the film to beat. Building on its massive holiday season success, the sci-fi epic is demonstrating incredible staying power. With a reported second-weekend drop of only 28% in late 2025, analysts expect it to continue pulling in significant numbers throughout January. This powerful holdover performance sets a high bar for any new release aiming for the top spot and will heavily influence the opening weekend potential of its competitors.

The Challengers: A Trio of Genre Heavyweights

While ‘Avatar’ looms large, several new films are poised to carve out their own success by appealing to different audience appetites, particularly those craving action and horror.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

The clear frontrunner among the newcomers is ‘28 Years Later: The Bone Temple.’ The latest installment in the beloved post-apocalyptic horror franchise is generating significant buzz. Early tracking suggests it will be the month’s biggest new opener, with some domestic projections reaching as high as $81 million. Capitalizing on the genre’s traditional success in January, this film is widely expected to win the month among new releases.

Mercy

Hot on its heels is the sci-fi thriller ‘Mercy.’ Boasting the formidable star power of Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson, the film ranks as the second-most hyped movie of January based on online engagement. This star-driven vehicle is positioned to be a strong contender, battling for audiences who want a thrilling, original story.

Greenland 2: Migration

The third major player is ‘Greenland 2: Migration,’ the sequel to the 2020 disaster hit. Gerard Butler returns, testing his consistent box office draw in the action genre. While the first film was a solid success, experts are closely watching to see if the sequel can replicate or surpass its performance in a competitive field.

Expert Projections and Industry Trends

Industry insiders and box office analysts see a clear hierarchy forming. ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ will likely dominate the early weeks, with ‘28 Years Later: The Bone Temple’ being the most probable film to break through. One analyst noted that while the horror sequel will likely be the biggest release of the month, no other new film in January looks poised to break the $50 million mark, highlighting the challenging market.

January has often been labeled a ‘dump month,’ but it has also proven to be a fertile ground for genre films—especially horror—that offer an alternative to holiday blockbusters. The success of ‘28 Years Later’ and the potential for a sleeper hit like the chimpanzee-centric horror film ‘Primate’ could reinforce this trend. The overall performance of this diverse slate will serve as a crucial early indicator of audience enthusiasm and the financial health of the film industry for the year ahead.

Conclusion: Who Will Win the Winter Crown?

The January 2026 box office is a fascinating mix of a reigning behemoth and hungry new contenders. While ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ has the momentum, the strong genre appeal of ‘28 Years Later: The Bone Temple,’ the star power of ‘Mercy,’ and the proven formula of ‘Greenland 2: Migration’ make for an unpredictable and exciting race. As audiences head to theaters, the results will set the tone for the cinematic year to come. Which film will you be seeing?